It's Russia that may now be feeling the pressure

 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently stated, "the ball is now in Russia's court." This marks a significant moment in diplomatic relations. 

Following a long day of discussions in Jeddah, the joint statement from the U.S. and Ukraine includes several key points, the most crucial being: "The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace." 

In recent weeks, there has been much discussion about Donald Trump's expectations from Ukraine and the firm strategies the White House has used to influence Kyiv. Now, the intentions of Russia are set to be publicly examined.

Donald Trump's interactions with Vladimir Putin have remained uncertain, with no apparent pressure being applied to balance that on Volodymyr Zelensky. The statement released on Tuesday does not suggest that Trump has suddenly changed his stance on Zelensky; their relationship is complex and rooted in years of mutual mistrust.

However, the tension created by their contentious meeting in the Oval Office just 11 days ago may begin to dissipate as the serious work of peace-making commences. 

With the immediate resumption of U.S. intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine—after a brief suspension—it appears that Russia may now be feeling the pressure. 

These are still early days, and many details will need to be addressed in future negotiations. The statement notes the need for "substantive details" regarding a permanent end to the war, as well as the guarantees Ukraine can expect for their long-term security and prosperity.

The last paragraph reflects Washington’s belief that security and prosperity can be achieved through the proposed critical minerals deal, rather than the specific military assurances Kyiv has sought. Zelensky and Trump have agreed to finalize a deal "as soon as possible." However, how a purely commercial arrangement can prevent future aggressive actions from Russia remains to be determined.

The statement also mentions that the Ukrainian delegation "reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process," but it offers no insight into how Washington views the potential role of Europe in these talks.

The meeting in Saudi Arabia represents a timely reset following recent turbulence. However, it does not imply that the U.S. and Ukraine are completely aligned on the path forward. If President Zelensky had any doubts, he now understands that he is dealing with a capricious and unpredictable American president, for whom past loyalties and traditional diplomatic behavior hold little significance. While Trump will attempt to keep the ball in Russia's court, Zelensky knows it may very well end up back in his own hands.