If you had asked Canadians a few months ago who would win the country's next general election, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservative Party. However, that outcome no longer seems certain.
In the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats against Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party has surged in the polls, shrinking the double-digit lead the Conservative Party had maintained since mid-2023.
This dramatic change in the political landscape reflects how Trump's tariffs and his repeated remarks about making Canada "the 51st state" have fundamentally altered Canadian voters' priorities. Trump’s rhetoric has "pushed away all of the other issues" that were top of mind for Canadians before his inauguration on January 20, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
Interestingly, Trump's actions have even revived the once deeply unpopular Trudeau, whose approval rating has climbed by 12 points since December. However, the Prime Minister will not be in power for much longer, having announced his resignation at the beginning of the year.
On Sunday, the Liberal Party will announce the results of its leadership contest to determine who will take over a party that is currently running a precarious minority government. The new leader will face two immediate decisions: how to respond to Trump's threats and when to call a general election. The response to the first dilemma will likely influence the timing of the second.
A federal election must be held on or before October 20, but it could be called as early as this week. Polls indicate that many Canadians still desire a change in leadership. However, what that change would entail—a Liberal government under new leadership or a complete shift to the Conservatives—has become uncertain, according to Greg Lyle, president of the Toronto-based Innovative Research Group, which has been polling Canadians on their shifting attitudes. "Up until now, it was a blowout for the Conservatives," he tells the BBC.
This shift is largely because the centre-right Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has effectively communicated its stance on issues that have resonated with Canadians in recent years, including the rising cost of living, housing unaffordability, crime, and a strained healthcare system. Poilievre has successfully linked these societal problems to what he labels Trudeau's "disastrous" policies, promising a return to "common sense politics."
However, with Trudeau's resignation and Trump's threats to Canada's economic security and even its sovereignty, that messaging has become stale, according to Lyle. His polling suggests that the majority of Canadians are now primarily concerned about Trump’s presidency and its implications for Canada.
Trump's 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports to the U.S.—some of which have been paused until April 2—could be devastating for Canada's economy, which relies on the U.S. for three-quarters of its exports. Officials have predicted up to a million job losses as a result, and Canada could face a recession if these tariffs continue.
Trudeau has made it clear how seriously he is taking the threat, stating this week that Trump’s justification for the tariffs—concerning the flow of fentanyl across the border—was unfounded and unjustified. "What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy because that would make it easier to annex us," the Prime Minister warned. In many ways, it is a fundamental issue regarding the survival of the country, as Professor Turgeon notes.
Consequently, the key question in the forthcoming election has become: who is best positioned to stand up for Canada against Trump? While Conservatives remain ahead in the polls, with an average of around 40% support, the Liberals have experienced a revival, climbing to slightly over 30%—a 10-point increase since January.
In response to Trump's threats, the Conservative Party has shifted its slogan to "Canada First." Meanwhile, the Liberals have sought to draw parallels between Poilievre and the Republican president. During last week's leadership debate, candidates referred to Poilievre as "our little version of Trump here at home" and suggested he was looking to "imitate" the U.S. president. A Liberal Party attack ad juxtaposed clips of both using similar phrases such as "fake news" and "radical left."
Despite these comparisons, there are clear differences between the two politicians in terms of style and substance. Trump has even downplayed the parallels, telling British magazine *The Spectator* that Poilievre is "not MAGA enough." Nevertheless, polls indicate a possible decline in Conservative support. A recent poll by Angus Reid suggests that Canadians believe Liberal leadership front-runner Mark Carney is better equipped to deal with Trump on issues related to tariffs and trade than Poilievre. Carney, the former central banker for both Canada and England, is emphasizing his experience in handling economic crises.